Demand Management Calculations – Supply Chain Management
Key Concept Exercise: Demand management calculations (Week 2) Your Key Concept Exercise this week asks you to carry out calculations on demand management. To prepare for this Key Concept Exercise •Read the Required Learning Resources for Week 2. Module Text (Go to https://www.vitalsource.com/ to access the below mentioned text books. “Log in and password will be provided separately” Jacobs, F.R. & Chase, R.B. (2014) Operations and supply chain management. 14th global ed. New York: McGraw-Hill. Chapter 20, ‘Inventory management’ (pp. 513-555) Chopra, S. & Meindl, P. (2012) Supply chain management: strategy, planning, and operation. 5th global ed. Upper Saddle River, New Jersey: Prentice-Hall. Chapter 10, ‘Coordination in a supply chain’ (pp. 262-282) And https://elearning.uol.ohecampus.com/bbcswebdav/institution/UKL1/201840MAR/MS_KMGT/KMGT_601_LC/readings/UKL1_KMGT_601_Week03_Week08_datamonitor_7-11.pdf By Day 3 (Saturday) 31st March 2017 •Submit your Key Concept Exercise (Questions 1 and 2) to the Turnitin link provided. Question 1 Historical demand for a product is as follows: •June (150) •July (165) •August (175) •September (140) •October (155) •November (155) Calculate a weighted moving average forecast for December using weights of 0.4, 0.3 and 0.3. Using single exponential forecast with alpha = 0.3 and a starting forecast for June of 155, calculate the forecast for the other 5 months and also calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the forecasts. What effect does changing the alpha to 0.4 have on the forecasts and the MAD? Explain the differences. Be sure to demonstrate your work and provide a brief interpretation. (200 words maximum) Question 2 What are the advantages and disadvantages of using the weighted moving average and the exponential smoothing methods of forecasting? Which industries or products would use these methods of forecasting? Explain why. (300 words maximum) By Day 4 (Sunday) 1st April 2018 •Post a brief (around 100 words) reflection regarding how measuring the accuracy of forecasts using mean absolute deviation (MAD) helps to improve forecasting. Be sure to read over your assignment before submitting it, make sure the spelling and grammar for your assignment are correct, and the language, citing and referencing you use when providing your opinion are appropriate for academic writing. Harvard reference style.